There are a lot of big numbers swirling in the news lately from giant COVID-19 impacts to large stimulus responses to get the economy back on track.

Two of the most important big numbers are 50% by 2030 — those numbers represent the amount of carbon emission reductions we must achieve within 9 years to really slow down climate change. A concrete way to get there is to reduce energy usage by improving our building stock and by transitioning away from fossil energy – namely natural gas.  On Earth Day, President Biden declared this goal while unveiling a plan for massive, economy-wide creation of millions of jobs building out the clean energy future.

The 50% by 2030 target can be abstract, so let’s explore what it means for our homes, jobs, and economy here in Oregon.

The energy efficiency world is often critiqued for incremental thinking and the supply of marginal incentives that reaccumulate in wealthier households. Such practices lead to about 1% of homes doing energy retrofit work annually, a dismally low rate that will not get us to 50% by 2030.

Portland’s recent acceleration initiative is the Portland Clean Energy and Community Benefits Fund or PCEF for short. For the first time, an Oregon energy program prioritizes carbon reductions paired with social and racial equity goals to tackle the necessary energy transition of the next decade.

PCEF, confined to Portland, will spend an estimated $60 million annually.  Is this enough to get us to 50% by 2030?

We must think bigger. 36X Bigger.

Following up on research from several years ago, and an article by Marti Frank on Seattle Mega Projects, experts Bruce Manclark and Bob Davis helped us answer what it would take to decarbonize all homes across Oregon in 9 years?

The effort requires $19.6 Billion, 36 times the size of PCEF’s annual budget.

Such a number no longer sounds that big for solving a persistent issue. Surely we could shake this amount loose out of a federal infrastructure package weighing in the Trillions, right?

The reality is: it’s no longer a matter of could, but must. And, if the price tag still seems large, we need to change our thinking.

Our homes are part of the problem, but they are also part of the solution.

We don’t often think of our homes as sources of pollution like cars and factories. However, most Oregon homes still have tailpipes, burning fossil fuels like natural gas and oil that exacerbate both climate change and local health issues. A recent study out from Harvard and RMI, shows Oregon has $3.8 billion of negative health impacts from our residential homes every year.

Said another way, investing $19.6 Billion in the efficiency and electrification of Oregon homes has a five year payback and investment grade returns, from reduced health-care impacts alone.

That is not bad for a Mega Project that leads to hundreds of thousands of healthier, safer, and more comfortable homes with lower monthly energy bills.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Investing in Oregon homes means local jobs, and lots of them. The work of electrifying and retrofitting Oregon homes would require over 3,200 full-time, family wage jobs, all located here in Oregon. There is no way to outsource the 520,000 gas furnaces that must be replaced with high-efficiency electric heat pumps or the 200,000 wall insulation jobs needed to reduce energy demand during hot summer days and cold winter nights. The homes are here and so too are the workers and families whose participation in the local economy builds the resilience and strength of our communities.

The window of opportunity is short, so the action must be proportionately swift. Reducing carbon emissions 50% by 2030 requires a lot of work state-wide and economy-wide. We need another coordinated state and federal response on the Mega Project scale that shakes us from incremental advances. This decade of energy transformation must be defined by a New Deal type effort to invest in the energy efficiency and electrification of homes.

Call to Action

There is a lot of work to get our economy mobilized. Recently, Secretary Granholm announced a plan to start doing that work.  The U.S. Department of Energy is taking action to invest in the efficiency and electrification of our country’s buildings.

Citizens must demand that climate action, clean buildings, and equity all go hand in hand. Community Energy Project is committed to advocating for Mega Projects that meet the scale of the challenge in a way that advances social and racial equity.

We also do our part to transform the homes of the low-income and frontline communities we serve. Help us advance our mission and goal of replacing fossil fuels with clean energy in homes by supporting our Electrify Everyone initiative. Proceeds go toward replacing gas water heaters with efficient, electric heat pump water heaters, saving 2 tons of carbon and $150 a year in utility cost.

Want to explore the spreadsheet we used to calculate the total costs yourself? Email [email protected] for access.